Tuesday,
11 November 2003
How Causal Probabilities Might Fit Into Our Objectively Indeterministic
World
Nuel Belnap, University of Pittsburgh, Philosophy
12:05 pm, 817R Cathedral of Learning
Abstract:
We suggest a rigorous theory of how objective single-case transition
probabilities fit into our world. The theory combines indeterminism
and relativity in the "branching space-times" pattern,
and relies on the existing theory of causae causantes (originating
causes). Its fundamental suggestion is that (at least in simple
cases) the probabilities of all transitions can be computed from
the basic probabilities attributed individually to their originating
causes. The theory explains when and how one can reasonably infer
from the probabilities of one "chance set-up" to the probabilities
of another such set-up that is located far away.
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