HPS 2154 Theories of Confirmation Fall 2024

Files from HPS 2682, Fall 2010.
Files from HPS 2682, Spring 2017
Files from HPS 2682, Spring 2021

Course documents.

Science is distinguished from other investigations of nature in that the claims of mature sciences are strongly supported by empirical evidence. Theories of confirmation provide accounts of this relation of inductive support. We shall review the range of theories of confirmation, including formal and less formal approaches. The review will be critical; none of them is entirely successful. The theories will be tested against significant cases of the use of evidence in science.

Instructor
John D. Norton, Department of History and Philosophy of Science, 11th floor CL, 412 624 5896 jdnorton@pitt.edu
Place
1008C Cathedral of Learning
Time
Wednesday 2:00pm - 4:30pm

Your Part

Term paper
To be submitted by 5pm, Friday December 13, in email.

The paper may be on any subject of relevance to the seminar. If you are unsure of a topic, a natural project is to take some episode in history of science in which evidential relations were prominent and see how well a popular account of inductive inferences fits with it. (See "small project" below.)

To assist you in commencing work, please submit a paper proposal by the seminar meeting, Wednesday November 20, in email ahead of the class meeting. The proposal need only be brief. It should contain a short paragraph describing the topic to be investigated and give a brief indication of the sources you intend to use. Do talk to me about possible topics in advance!

My policy is NOT to issue incomplete grades, excepting in extraordinary circumstances. I really do want your papers completed and submitted by the end of term. We do not want them to linger on like an overdue dental checkup, filling your lives with unnecessary worry and guilt.
Small project, week 2, Wednesday September 4.
Each of you will find an interesting evidential claim in science made by scientists, either in present science or past science, and describe it briefly (10 minutes) in our Wednesday September 4 meeting, using (at least) one slide (Powerpoint, etc.). The natural choice is to note that item X is claimed by scientists to be strong evidence for hypothesis Y in scientific theory Z.
Closing presentation, final seminar meeting Wednesday December 11.
In the course of the seminar, you will track how well the different approaches to induction explicate the claim and give a short report.
OR
If you have engaged in a different research project pertinent to inductive inference and confirmation theory, you will present your results.
Take your turn presenting material
The seminar will be structured around presentations by seminar members, including me. They are based on weekly readings drawn from the topics and reading list; and a short report on the small project.

In presenting a reading, you should presume that the seminar has read the reading. You should spend a short amount of time reviewing the principal claims and arguments of the reading. This is not intended to replace the seminar's reading of the text, but merely to provide a basis of common agreement on its content and upon which subsequent discussion is erected. Your principal burden is to provide a critical analysis and response to the reading. This analysis can take many directions. Is the project of the paper clear? Are the theses clear? Are the arguments cogent? How does the reading relate to other readings and issues in the seminar? Are there plausible counter-theses? What arguments support them?

You should plan to present for at most 30 minutes and that will be followed by discussion of up to 15 minutes for discussion. If discussion starts prematurely, the discussion time may be interleaved with the full 45 minutes allocated. Many presenters provide handouts so that few notes need to be taken.

More on presentations
Attendance and participation
I look forward to seeing and hearing you each week in the seminar.

The number of pages to be read each week has been kept short in order to make it feasible for everyone to do the reading. Please do the reading. Otherwise you will be unable to participate properly in discussion and become a burden on those who have done the readings.

University-wide Policies 
https://teaching.pitt.edu/resources/syllabus-checklist/

Academic Integrity

Students in this course will be expected to comply with the University of Pittsburgh's Policy on Academic Integrity. Any student suspected of violating this obligation for any reason during the semester will be required to participate in the procedural process, initiated at the instructor level, as outlined in the University Guidelines on Academic Integrity. This may include, but is not limited to, the confiscation of the examination of any individual suspected of violating University Policy. Furthermore, no student may bring any unauthorized materials to an exam, including dictionaries and programmable calculators.

To learn more about Academic Integrity, visit the Academic Integrity Guide or an overview of the topic. For hands- on practice, complete the Academic Integrity Modules.

Disability Services

If you have a disability for which you are or may be requesting an accommodation, you are encouraged to contact both your instructor and Disability Resources and Services (DRS), 140 William Pitt Union, (412) 648-7890, drsrecep@pitt.edu, (412) 228-5347 for P3 ASL users, as early as possible in the term. DRS will verify your disability and determine reasonable accommodations for this course.