Statistics in a Modern World 800
Solutions to Exam 3
-
- (i) relative frequency
- 1 - .16 = .84
- .23 + .16 = .39
-
- Venn diagram should show two circles F and O; overlap has probability .05;
in F but not O has probability .03; in O but not F has probability .20.
- .08 + .25 - .05 = .28, or from Venn .03 + .05 + .20 = .28
- NOT independent because .08 * .25 doesn't equal .05
-
- inadmissible because they sum to more than 1
- inadmissible because probabilities cannot exceed 1
- inadmissible because probabilities cannot be negative
- admissible; probabilities could be 2/3 and 1/3
- inadmissible because whether or not one wins must impact the probability
of the other winning
- (b) personal probability
- 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/16
- 1/4 * 1/3 = 1/12
- 1(.1) + 2(.4) + 3(.3) + 4(.2) = 2.6
- (a) more likely because more general
- (d) representativeness
- (c) equally likely
- (b) gambler's fallacy
- (b) availability (through media)
- (e) optimism
- (g) conservatism
- (a) anchoring
- (f) over-confidence
- (b) because of reduction of risk to 0
- (a) so many unusual events are possible that some are bound to happen
occasionally
- (a) 97% (solved in lecture)
-
- 1 - .02 = .98
- .02 * .9 = .018
- .98 * .05 = .049
- .018 + .049 = .067
- .018/.067 = .27
- (d) forgotten base rates
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