Stat 90-707 Statistical Reasoning

Fall 2021, Mon.Wed. 1:25-2:45 in Hamburg 1206; 12 units
Heinz College
Carnegie Mellon University

Instructor Dr. Nancy Pfenning
Website www.pitt.edu/~nancyp/CMU/index.html
E-mail nancypfenning@gmail.com
Office Hrs Wednesdays 11:30-12:30 in Hamburg 2108 or by appointment

News

  • Practice Final and Solutions to Practice Final
  • Midterm 2 and Solutions to Midterm 2
  • Practice Midterm 2 and Solutions to Practice Midterm 2
  • Midterm 1 and Solutions to Midterm 1
  • DataForMinitabProblems1to4.csvand DataForMinitabProblems5to10.csvand DataForMinitabProblems11-12.csv all tab-delimited text files, are now available for completing Minitab Problems. The first four problems are about works at the 1915 International Art Exhibition and fast food items' calorie and fat content. The next six are about lead movie roles, beverage and fast food content, and global refugees. The last two are about movie roles/studios and fast food cholesterol vs fat.
  • Here are Solutions to Midterm 1
  • Practice Midterm 1 and Solutions to Practice Midterm 1
  • Powerpoint Lecture Slides
  • Practice Quizzes and Solutions
  • Blank Homework Forms to be completed and turned in according to rules TBA
  • Before the first recitation of the semester, you should download Minitab onto your computer: https://www.cmu.edu/computing/software/all/minitab/index.html. Here is a brief guide to MINITAB 17 Basics , used in this course; for work on a Mac, see MinitabForMac .
  • Student Survey data: Fall2012StudentSurveyData.txt a tab-delimited text file, can be used to try out the examples in the MINITAB Basics tutorial. To download it into MINITAB, Type ctrl A to highlight, ctrl C to copy, start up MINITAB, type ctrl V to paste it. If it asks about delimiters, click OK.

    Description

    This course provides an introduction to the principles of data collection, display and summary tools, basic probability, and--most importantly--methods of statistical inference. An easy-to-use interactive statistical computing package called MINITAB will be used periodically; the correct interpretation of output produced by software will be stressed. Data collection is accomplished via sample surveys, observational studies, and experiments, with careful attention paid to how such studies can avoid bias. Inference procedures--both confidence intervals and hypothesis tests--will cover single means or proportions; paired, two-sample, or ANOVA comparisons; chi-square; simple linear regression.

    Prerequisites

    High-school level Algebra. No Comp. Sci. background needed.

    Textbook/Calculator

    Pfenning Elementary Statistics: Looking at the Big Picture (c)2011 Brooks/Cole, Cengage Learning, Do NOT use the Instructor Edition. If you'd like to consult other statistics books for reference, ask me in office hours. A calculator (any kind) is needed.

    Requirements

    Attendance (see below); homework, group responses to journal articles, Minitab tasks, quizzes, two midterms, and a comprehensive final exam.

    Attendance

    As an In-Person Expectation (IPE) class, all of us must begin the semester with a commitment to making the most of this opportunity for a group educational experience in both lectures and recitation. Then we must follow through on this commitment throughout the semester (taking the optimistic view that the pandemic won't prevent us from doing so). No matter what the specific parameters are of a university course, I personally feel very strongly that everyone's experience is optimized when each student is responsible not only for their own learning but also that of ALL the students in the class. The presence of each and every class member is essential to achieve this goal.

    Grading

    12 Homeworks 340
    Recitation work (Group Responses about Journal Articles; Minitab Tasks) 110
    Best 10 of 11 Quizzes 100
    Midterm 1 150
    Midterm 2 150
    Final Exam [see calendar for date/time] 200
    Total 1050
    Course % Total divided by 10

    Course Grade

    90-105% A; 80-89% B; etc. Plusses are assigned to the students at the top of each grade range and minuses to the students at the bottom. None of us can know in advance if an individual student will be a "borderline case"; completing all the assignments throughout the semester can help you to optimize your chances for the best possible grade; no late homeworks will be accepted.

    Recitations

    Fridays from 3:05 to 4:25 in Hamburg 1206
    TA Andrew Breazeale email abreazea@andrew.cmu.edu
    Office Hours Tuesdays 3:00-4:30 in HBH 2007 for first week (Aug. 31); location HBH 2108 (same as Dr. Pfenning's) for subsequent weeks; also by appointment.

    Recitations will give students the opportunity to explore real-life use of statistical methods via the analysis and discussion of journal articles in relevant disciplines. Besides this group work that reinforces broader appreciation for statistical applications, there will be quizzes that home in on the most essential skills and concepts covered in a given week. Preparation for these quizzes is best accomplished by trying each week's practice quiz in advance and then self-checking with the answer key provided (see the Practice Quizzes and Solutions link above). There will also be periodic instruction on the use of MINITAB (our computer package), as well as clarification and review of lecture material as needed. Most questions pertaining to the homework assignments will probably be addressed in instructor's and TA's office hours, as these questions tend to vary a great deal from student to student.

    Note: The material in this course is cumulative in nature. Thus, it is important not to fall behind in your reading or assignments or you will find yourself lost. If you are confused, see me or your recitation instructor for help.

    Mask Requirement: Whenever the requirement to wear a facial covering is in effect on campus, students are expected to wear a facial covering throughout class. Note: the requirement to wear a facial covering is in effect for the start of the Fall 2021 semester. If you do not wear a facial covering to class, I will ask you to put one on; if you don't have one with you, I will direct you to a distribution location on campus, see https://www.cmu.edu/coronavirus/health-and-wellness/facial-covering.html . If you do not comply, you will be referred to the Office of Community Standards and Integrity for follow up, which could include student conduct action. Finally, please note that sanitizing wipes should be available in our classroom for those who wish to use them.

    Note to Students with Disabilities: If you have a disability for which you are or may be requesting an accommodation, you are encouraged to contact both your instructor and Disability Resources access@andrew.cmu.edu as early as possible in the term. See their website https://www.cmu.edu/disability-resources/

    Student Academic Success Center (SASC): SASC creates spaces for students to engage in their coursework and approach learning through a variety of group and individual tutoring options. See their website https://www.cmu.edu/student-success/

    Academic Integrity Every student is responsible for understanding and abiding by the University's code for ethical behavior, as outlined on this website: https://www.cmu.edu/policies/student-and-student-life/academic-integrity.html

    About me: Having received my PhD in Mathematics from Carnegie Mellon University in 1985, I taught math and statistics part-time at the University of Pittsburgh from 1987 to 1999, and began lecturing full-time in 2000. My textbook Elementary Statistics: Looking at the Big Picture was published by Cengage in 2011. In 2012 I received Pitt's highest recognition for teaching in the Arts and Sciences, the David and Tina Bellett Award. In 2016 I was honored with the University's Chancellor's Distinguished Teaching Award. I retired from full-time teaching in September 2018. In recent semesters I taught an honors course Patients in Literature's Pages at Pitt and at Duquesne University, and have been employed since 2019 as visiting faculty at Brown University, writing curriculum to incorporate Data Science into middle- and high-school instruction. It is my pleasure to return to teaching statistics this fall (2021) with the added bonus of returning to my alma mater!

    About you: Students in this course represent a refreshingly diverse group with a broad range of areas of interest, including arts and entertainment mangagement, public policy and management, and health care policy. Thus, you are in an excellent position to make good on John Tukey's assertion: the great thing about statistics is that it lets you play in everyone's backyard!


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