| 1 |
Jan. 5 |
Introduction
Review of topics. Vote.
"A Little Survey of Induction" |
Norton |
| 2 |
Jan. 12 |
Background
to "Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US
Elections": The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution,
6 January 2017 Or here. |
Norton
slides
|
|
Jan. 12 |
Evidence in the legal and criminal context
Report
to the President: Forensic Science in the Criminal Courts:
Ensuring Feature-Comparison Methods.
Reference
Manual on Scientific Evidence, Second Edition. Federal
Judicial Center |
Norton
slides
Report...
slides Manual... |
|
Jan. 12 |
Evidence for Climate Change
Climate change: How do
we know? NASA Website
Cook et al. "Consensus
on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused
global warming" Environmental Research Letters,
Volume 11, Number 4
Climate
Change, Evidence & Causes: An overview from the Royal
Society and the US National Academy of Sciences
IPCC
2014 Technical Summary Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change |
Norton
Slides
IPCC2014 |
|
Jan. 12 |
A brief statement of an interesting evidential claim in science made
by scientists.
(Five minutes each only) |
All registered seminar members |
| 3 |
Jan. 19 |
Deborah G. Mayo, "Evidence as Passing Severe Tests: Highly
Probable versus Highly Probed Hypotheses," in, P. Achinstein, ed., Scientific
Evidence: Philosophical Theories and Applications. Baltimore:
Johns Hopkins University Press, 2005, pp. 94-127. |
Siska de Baerdemaeker
|
|
Jan 19
|
Paul Thagard, "The Best Explanation: Criteria for Theory Choice,"
Journal of Philosophy, 75 (1978): 76-92.
Background reading: Igor Douven, "Abduction",
The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. |
Zina Ward
|
|
Jan 19 |
Malcolm Forster and Elliott Sober, "How to Tell when Simpler, More
Unified, or Less Ad Hoc Theories will Provide More
Accurate Predictions," British Journal for the Philosophy of
Science, 45 (1994). pp. 1?35.
Background reading: To find out how it
really works, see John D. Norton, "Simplicity
as Model Selection," draft chapter for The Material
Theory of Induction.
|
Jennifer Whyte
|
| 4 |
Jan. 26 |
Richard Jeffrey, Subjective
Probability: The Real Thing. Ch. 1. Probability Primer |
Josh Fry
|
|
Jan. 26 |
Richard Jeffrey, Subjective
Probability: The Real Thing. Ch. 2. Testing Scientific
Theories |
Jacob Neal
|
|
Jan. 26 |
Bruno de Finetti, "Probabilism: A Critical Essay on the Theory of
Probability and on the Value of Science," Erkenntnis 31(1989),
pp. 169-223. (Bruno de Finetti,
"Probabilismo," Napoli, Logos 14 (1931), 163-219. Translated by
Maria Concetta Di Maio, Maria Carla Galavotti, and Richard C.
Jeffrey.) |
Tom Wysocki
|
| 5 |
Feb. 2 |
Jon Williamson, "Philosophies of Probability," Draft for A. Irvine
(ed.): Handbook of the Philosophy of Mathematics, Volume 4
of the Handbook of the Philosophy of Science, Elsevier.
Section III. Objective Bayesianism. |
Tom Wysocki |
|
Feb. 2 |
Edwin T. Jaynes, "Prior
Probabilities," IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and
Cybernetics, SSC-4, No. 3, 1968, pp. 227-241. |
Jacob Neal
|
|
Feb. 2 |
James Joyce, "A Nonpragmatic Vindication of Probabilism," Philosophy
of Science, 65, No. 4 (Dec., 1998), pp.
575-603.
|
Josh Fry |
| 6 |
Feb. 9 |
Samir Okasha, "Van Fraassen's Critique of Inference to the Best
Explanation," Studies in History and Philosophy of Science,
31, (2000), pp. 691-710. |
Jennifer Whyte
|
|
Feb. 9
|
E. T. Jaynes, Probability Theory: The Logic of Science.
Cambridge University Press, 2003. Chapters 1-2. Focus on the
derivation of the product and sum rules, Sections 2.1 and 2.2.
Background reading: one form of the
basic theorem behind Cox and Jaynes' analysis is given by Aczel in
his book on functional analysis. J. Aczel, Lectures on Functional
Equations and Their Applications. Academic Press, 1966. pp.
319-24.
A precursor to Jaynes' analysis is R. T. Cox, The Algebra of
Probable Inference. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins, 1961, Ch 1. |
Josh Fry
|
|
Feb. 9 |
John D. Norton, "Probability
Disassembled" British Journal for the Philosophy of
Science, 58 (2007), pp. 141-171. |
Norton
slides |
| 7 |
Feb. 16 |
Richard Royall, "The First Principle," Ch.1 in Statistical
Evidence: A Likelihood Paradigm. Chapman & Hall/CRC,
1997. |
Zina Ward
|
|
Feb. 16 |
Jason Grossman, "The Likelihood Principle" in Prasanta S.
Bandyopadhyay and Malcolm R. Forster, Philosophy of Statistics,
Amsterdam: North Holland-Elsevier, 2011.
|
Michael Begun
|
|
Feb. 16 |
Greg Gandenberger, "Why
I am not a Likelihoodist," Philosophers' Imprint Vol
16, May, 2016, pp. 1-22. |
Siska de Baerdemaeker |
| 8 |
Feb. 23 |
Ellery Eels and Branden Fitelson, "Symmetries and Asymmetries in
Evidential Support," Philosophical Studies, 107
(2002), pp. 129-142. |
Shahin Kaveh
|
|
Feb. 23 |
Vincenzo Crupi, Katya Tentori, and Michel Gonzalez, "On Bayesian
Measures of Evidential Support: Theoretical and Empirical Issues," Philosophy
of Science, 74 (2007), pp. 229-252. |
Tom Wysocki |
|
Feb. 23 |
Jan Sprenger, "Two Impossibility Results for Measures of
Corroboration," http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/11870/ |
Emily Howe
|
| 9 |
Mar. 2 |
John D. Norton "Cosmic
Confusions: Not Supporting versus Supporting Not-". Philosophy
of Science. 77 (2010), pp. 501-23. |
Norton
slides
from Pitt-Tsinghua
Summer School for Philosophy of Science, 2011 |
|
Mar. 2 |
Yann Benetreau-Dupin, "The
Bayesian Who Knew Too Much" Synthese 192, no. 5
(2015), pp. 1527-1542. |
Yann Benetreau-Dupin |
|
Mar. 2 |
Lee Elkin, "The Many Faces of Confirmation in Imprecise
Probability Theory." Manuscript. |
Lee Elkin |
|
Mar. 6-10 |
Spring Recess |
|
| 10 |
Mar. 16 |
Chapters from The Material Theory of Induction
Synoptic table of contents
1.
The Material Theory of Induction Stated and Illustrated
2.
What Powers Inductive Inference?
|
Norton
slides |
|
Mar. 16 |
4. Analogy
6.
Simplicity as a Surrogate |
Norton
slides (analogy)
slides
(simplicity) |
| 11 |
Mar. 23 |
8.
Inference to the Best Explanation: The General Account
9.
Inference to the Best Explanation: Examples
|
Norton
slides |
|
Mar. 23 |
12.
Infinite Lottery Machines
Optional reading for more ideas in the
same direction
13.
Indeterministic Systems
14.
Nonmeasurable Outcomes |
Norton
slides |
|
|
 |
|
| 12 |
Mar. 30 |
Larry Laudan and Jarrett Leplin, "Empirical Equivalence and
Underdetermination," Journal of Philosophy, 88 (1991), pp.
449-72. |
Jennifer Whyte
|
|
Mar. 30 |
Kyle Stanford, "The Problem of Unconceived Alternatives," Ch.2 in
Exceeding Our Grasp Science, History and the Problem of
Unconceived Alternatives. Oxford University Press. 2006. |
Yann Benetreau-Dupin |
|
Mar. 30 |
Richard Dawid, "Underdetermination and Theory Succession from the
Perspective of String Theory." Philosophy of Science 73
No.3 (2006), pp. 298-322. |
Shahin Kaveh
|
|
Mar. 30 |
Term paper topic due |
|
| 13 |
Apr. 6 |
Newton's Principia,
Book 1, Propositions
1-4.
Newton's Principia,
Book 3, Up
to Propositions 15. |
Shahin Kaveh
|
|
Apr. 6 |
William Harper, "Newton's Classic Deductions from Phenomena," PSA:
Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science
Association, Vol. 1990, Volume Two. (1990), pp. 183-96. |
Michael Begun
|
|
Apr. 6 |
Box 6. Newton's Arguments in Principia, pp. 105-109.
Box 7. Newton's Arguments in Principia: From the
Approximate to the Exact Inverse Square Law, pp. 128-135.
in John D. Norton "A
Survey of Inductive Generalization".
Newton's Principia,
Book 1, Propositions
44-45. |
Norton (Unless someone else wants it) |
| 14 |
Apr. 13 |
IPCC
Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report
IPCC
2014 Technical Summary
Guidance
Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on
Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Optional background reading: William
Rehg and Kent Staley, "'Agreement' in the IPCC Confidence
measure," Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics,
57 (2017), pp. 126-134. |
Zina Ward
|
|
Apr. 13 |
Cook et al. "Consensus
on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused
global warming" Environmental Research Letters,
Volume 11, Number 4
|
Emily Howe
|
|
Apr. 13 |
Richard Bradley, Casey Helgeson and Brian Hill, "Climate
Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability and Decision" |
Mikael Cozic |
|
Apr. 13 |
Climate
Change, Evidence & Causes: An overview from the Royal
Society and the US National Academy of Sciences |
An orphan reading. Optional.
|
| 15 |
Apr. 20 |
|
Everyone |
|
Friday Apr. 28
|
Term paper due. Hard copy by noon in
1017CL or e-versions emailed by 5pm. |
|
