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What is the probability that the clinician will make a correct diagnosis?
During the diagnostic process, the clinician compares the case to normal
horses or to other cases. The probability of a correct diagnosis for a
case, in other words for this horse, is simply 0 or 1. The horse has or
does not have a particular type of colic. However,
the clinician cannot
tell the horse owner that the probability is 0 or 1. Clinicians give
probability statements to clients; for example: there is a 60% chance that
the horse has colic due to parasites. This probability statement
originates from population-based data.
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