Tuesday, 18 March 2008
Propensities and Conditional Probabilities
Isabelle Drouet, University of Paris
12:05 pm, 817R Cathedral of Learning

Abstract: According to Humphreys' paradox, there cannot be a propensity interpretation of conditional probabilities. The aim of my presentation is to put this claim into question. First, I criticize one presupposition of Humphreys' argument in favor of this claim. Then, I give an analysis of what it is to give an interpretation of conditional probabilities. Finally I propose a propensity interpretation of conditional probabilities.